IPBES

The UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2012

CCRA 2012

Geographical coverage

Geographical scale of the assessment	National
Country or countries covered	United Kingdom
Any other necessary information or explanation for identifying the location of the assessment, including site or region name	England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland

Geographical scale of the assessment

National

Country or countries covered

United Kingdom

Any other necessary information or explanation for identifying the location of the assessment, including site or region name

England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland

Conceptual framework, methodology and scope

Assessment objectives

The overall aim of the CCRA was to inform UK adaptation policy, by assessing the main risks (threats and opportunities) posed by the current climate and future climate change for the UK to the year 2100.

Mandate for the assessment

An independent analysis funded by UK Government and Devolved Governments and the first of a series of assessments required by The UK Climate Change Act 2008.

Conceptual framework and/or methodology used for the assessment

Other (please specify)

UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) Risk and Uncertainty Framework (UKCIP, 2003) formed the over-arching conceptual framework, but the method was developed as part of the project. Evidence for over 700 potential impacts of climate change in a UK context were reviewed. Detailed analysis was undertaken for over 100 of these impacts across 11 key sectors, on the basis of their likelihood, the scale of their potential consequences and the urgency with which action may be needed to address them.

URL or copy of conceptual framework developed or adapted

The conceptual framework and detailed method are described in the Methodology Report that can be downloaded from: http://ccra.hrwallingford.com/CCRAReports/downloads/CCRA%20Method%2016%20July%202012.pdf

System(s) assessed

Marine
Coastal
Island
Inland water
Forest and woodland
Cultivated/Agricultural land
Grassland
Urban
Moorlands

Species groups assessed

Terrestrial, marine, freshwater

Ecosystem services/functions assessed

Provisioning

Food
Water
Timber/fibres
Ornamental resources
Wild species diversity

Regulating

Air quality
Climate regulation
Moderation of extreme events
Regulation of water flows
Regulation of water quality
Erosion prevention
Pollination
Pest and disease control
Soil quality

Supporting Services/Functions

Habitat maintenance
Nutrient cycling
Soil formation and fertility
Primary production

Cultural Services

Recreation and tourism
Sense of place

Scope of assessment includes

Drivers of change in systems and services

Yes

Impacts of change in services on human well-being

Yes

Options for responding/interventions to the trends observed

Yes

Explicit consideration of the role of biodiversity in the systems and services covered by the assessment

Yes

Timing of the assessment

Year assessment started

2009

Year assessment finished

2012

If ongoing, year assessment is anticipated to finish

Periodicity of assessment

Repeated

If repeated, how frequently

Repeated every 5 years

Assessment outputs

Website(s)

Report(s)

Devolved Administration Reports and Summaries - see http://ccra.hrwallingford.com/CCRAReports/reportviewer.html?sector=intro&link=LinkTarget_1

Method report
188_CCRA_Method.pdf

Recommendations report
188_CCRA_Recommendations.pdf

Reports and Summaries for each of the eleven sectors - see http://ccra.hrwallingford.com/CCRAReports/reportviewer.html?sector=intro&link=LinkTarget_1

Summary of the key findings from the CCRA
188_CCRA_Summary.pdf

The CCRA UK Government Report
188_The_CCRA_UK_Government_Report.pdf

The UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2012 Evidence Report
188_CCRA_Evidence_Report.pdf

Communication materials (e.g. brochure, presentations, posters, audio-visual media)

Communication_materials.doc

Journal publications

Hames D, Panzeri MC, Ramsbottom D, Townend IH, Wade SD, 2012, The UK's first climate change risk assessment and the implications for the coast , In: Proceedings of the International Conference on Coastal Engineering, Coastal Engineering Research Council, New York, Paper No.762, pp. 1-9.

Jerry W. Knox and Steven D Wade. 2012. Assessing climate risks to UK agriculture. Nature Climate Change 2, 378-378 doi:10.1038/nclimate1538
188_Jerry_W._Knox_and_Steven_D_Wade._2012._Assessing_climate_risks_to_UK_agriculture.pdf

The UK Climate Change Risk Assessment: analysis of the water sector, Hurford, A., Wade, S.D., Rance, J. and Ramsbottom, D., Paper presented at the 4th Yangtze Forum, Nanjing, China, 19th April 2011

The UK Climate Change Risk Assessment, Wade, S.D., Lovell, J., Townend, I.H., Lewis, R., & Ramsbottom, D., Paper presented at the International Symposium on Climate Change and Water, Nanjing Hydraulics Research Institute, Nanjing, China, 20th/21st April 2011

Wade, S.D., Rance, J. and Reynard, N. 2012. The UK climate change risk assessment 2012: assessing the impacts on water resources to inform policy makers. Water Resources Management. 10.1007/s11269-012-0205-z
188_Assessing_the_impacts_on_water_resources_to_inform_policy_makers.pdf

Training materials

Tools and processes

Tools and approaches used in the assessment

Modelling
Geospatial analysis
Indicators
Scenarios
Economic valuation
Social (non-monetary) valuation
Risk assessment, risk metrics, systematic mapping, UK climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) Risk and Uncertainty Framework (UKCIP, 2003).

Process used for stakeholder engagement in the assessment process and which component

Sector specific workshops
Devolved Administration workshops
Online feedback
CCRA Forum (cross-sector, private, public and NGOs)

Key stakeholder groups engaged

Policy-makers
Government agencies
Key service providers
Private sector
Non-government organisations

The number of people directly involved in the assessment process

More than 1000

Incorporation of scientific and other types of knowledge

Scientific information only
Resource experts (e.g. foresters etc)
Traditional/local knowledge

Supporting documentation for specific approaches, methodology or criteria developed and/or used to integrate knowledge systems into the assessment

http://ccra.hrwallingford.com/CCRAReports/downloads/CCRA%20Method%2016%20July%202012.pdf

Assessment reports peer reviewed

Yes

Data

Accessibility of data used in assessment

Risk matrix tool: http://ccra.hrwallingford.com/CCRAReports/reportviewer.html?sector=matrix&link=LinkTarget_1
Catalogue of risk metrics and metadata http://ccra.hrwallingford.com/CCRAReports/reportviewer.html?sector=bibliography&link=LinkTarget_1
Systematic mapping http://ccra.hrwallingford.com/CCRAsystematic/index.aspx
Statement of use http://ccra.hrwallingford.com/CCRAReports/reportviewer.html?sector=intro&link=LinkTarget_1

Policy impact

Impacts the assessment has had on policy and/or decision making, as evidenced through policy references and actions

The UK CCRA Evidence Report has been laid before Parliament in line with the requirements of the Climate Change Act 2008. The government will be setting out proposals and policies for responding to the risks identified in the CCRA through the National Adaptation Programme (NAP) (covering England and reserved, excepted and non-devolved matters), to be published during 2013. Government reports can be downloaded from: http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climate/government/risk-assessment/ . A further economic analysis has recently been completed to supplement the findings from the CCRA to inform Government about the case for further action and the costs and benefits of a number of options for adaptation to climate change. The reports for this project can be found here: http://randd.defra.gov.uk/Default.aspx?Module=More&Location=None&ProjectID=18016

Independent or other review on policy impact of the assessment

Yes

Lessons learnt for future assessments from these reviews

Yet to be determined

Capacity building

Capacity building needs identified during the assessment

A detailed adaptive capacity assessment across all sectors was undertaken as part of the CCRA. The publication of the final report for this is pending.

Actions taken by the assessment to build capacity

How have gaps in capacity been communicated to the different stakeholders

Knowledge generation

Gaps in knowledge identified from the assessment

Gaps in knowledge identified from the assessment are listed p.306-308 of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2012 Evidence Report. These are discussed further in the Recommendations Report.

How gaps in knowledge have been communicated to the different stakeholders

Gaps in knowledge are communicated p.306-308 of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2012 Evidence Report